104
FXUS01 KWBC 191927
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
326 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VALID 00Z SAT JUN 20 2026 - 00Z MON JUN 22 2026
...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST...
...A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM RENEWS THE THREAT OF NUMEROUS
FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND...
...A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE EAST COAST, BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS, WHILE THE WEST REMAINS HOT AND DRY, INTRODUCING
CRITICAL FIRE RISK ON SATURDAY...
THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE
MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST, WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUELED BY HIGH
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 2
INCHES. COMBINED WITH THE ANTECEDENT SATURATION OF SOILS FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS OF RAINFALL, SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A PRIMARY CONCERN. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
(LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE OF
CONCERN FOR THE SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SAGGING SOUTHWARD. A
ROBUST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY THE REGION
WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF, WHICH, ALONG WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL AID IN SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY, A RESIDUAL SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUMS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY ORGANIZING OVER
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUOUSLY TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
SYSTEM, ESTABLISHING A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FLOURISH WITHIN A REGION
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, PROMPTING A MODERATE
RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY WHERE CELLS TRACK OVER THE SAME LOW-LYING AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED AN ENHANCED
RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, VERY LARGE HAIL, AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. BY SUNDAY, THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THE THREATS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTED COLD FRONT
WILL RENDER LARGELY QUIET AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. A STEADY NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A
COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS, KEEPING AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 70S AND 80S
ALONGSIDE LOWER DEW POINTS. IN CONTRAST TO THE SEASONABLE EAST
COAST CONDITIONS, ABOVE-AVERAGE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE WEST. HIGHS
IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN, BEFORE DECLINING TO THE UPPER 70S
AND MID-80S BY SUNDAY. MUCH-ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN, HOWEVER, TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. CONCURRENTLY, STRONG
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE SET TO COMMENCE ON SATURDAY IN
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SURFACE WINDS REACHING 20
MPH, FIRE WEATHER WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR THIS AREA. AS SUCH, THERE
IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER ALONGSIDE MULTIPLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY.
BLANCO-ALCALA/ASHERMAN
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