806
FXUS01 KWBC 200801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 20 2026 - 12Z MON JUN 22 2026
...IMPACTFUL FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW; LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF
COAST...
...A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE EAST COAST, BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS, WHILE THE WEST REMAINS HOT AND DRY, INTRODUCING
CRITICAL FIRE RISK ON SATURDAY...
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE NEXT "WEATHER-MAKER" FOR THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE FORM OF A LEE-SIDE
CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN COLORADO. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEEPENS
TODAY, STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT A
MOISTURE-LADEN WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE HEARTLAND WHILE A
DRYLINE SHARPENS IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
IMPACTFUL FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PLAINS AS
THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT EAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY,
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FOR TORNADOES, LARGE
HAIL, AND SEVERE WIND. HOWEVER, IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THESE CELLS
SHOULD CONGEAL INTO AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. BY TOMORROW
MORNING, THE REMNANT COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE
MIDWEST, DRAGGING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY
AS ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT.
MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST FOCUSED ALONG OUTFLOWS GENERATED BY
PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. THE OVERALL NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL
BE HIT OR MISS. THAT SAID, THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
SATURATED SOILS FROM THE LAST WEEK MEAN THAT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY IF A STORM SITS OVER ONE PLACE FOR
TOO LONG.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTED COLD FRONT
WILL RENDER LARGELY QUIET AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WEATHER
TODAY. A STEADY NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A
COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS, KEEPING AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 70S AND 80S
ALONGSIDE LOWER DEW POINTS. HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN,
BEFORE DECLINING TO THE UPPER 70S AND MID-80S BY SUNDAY.
MUCH-ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN, HOWEVER, TO BEGIN THE
NEW WORK WEEK. CONCURRENTLY, STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
SET TO COMMENCE ON SATURDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
FOUR CORNERS REGION. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND SURFACE WINDS REACHING 20 MPH, FIRE WEATHER WILL BE OF
CONCERN FOR THIS AREA. AS SUCH, THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE
WEATHER ALONGSIDE MULTIPLE RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY.
ASHERMAN/BLANCO-ALCALA
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