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FXUS06 KWBC 201923
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT JUNE 20 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - 30 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND ARE CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
MODEL STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL
BLEND INDICATES A STRONGLY ANOMALOUS COUPLET WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA, ANOMALOUS TROUGHS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND. THE
PATTERN IS MORE MUTED OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES. AN ELONGATED AREA OF ABOVE
NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM THE PACIFIC TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM, AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST OVER OR
NEAR HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE MOST PERSISTENT. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TIED TO A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE
REGION, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH A
PAIR OF TROUGHS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, RESPECTIVELY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN MAINLAND, TIED
TO THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS (EXCEPT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY LIKELY, AS THE STORM TRACK MOVES NORTHWARD
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE PERIOD) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND POTENTIAL FRONTAL
FORCING AND ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN IS GENERALLY FAVORED FOR ALASKA, DUE TO A PAIR OF TROUGHS OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA RESPECTIVELY, CONSISTENT WITH OPERATIONAL
AUTOBLEND AND ERF CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII TIED TO A MID LEVEL LOW PREDICTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT GUIDANCE, OFFSET
SOMEWHAT BY DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 04, 2026
THE PREDICTED 500-HPA PATTERN FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD IS REMARKABLE IN TERMS OF
ITS LACK OF AMPLIFICATION. NEAR NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF
ALASKA AND THE CONUS. MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, BUT EVEN THESE ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO BE WEAK. THE MOST PROMINENT ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL FEATURE IS A RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC, WHICH HAS RETROGRADED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND
ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST
OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND NEAR SOUTHEASTERN
GREENLAND. PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OR A CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO BE
FORECAST NEAR OR OVER HAWAII.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS, ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WHERE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED DUE TO A WEAK TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST). HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
(GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST, NEAR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE ATLANTIC LATER IN THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN MAINLAND TIED TO THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE FORECAST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE
NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS, WHILE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS
(EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AS WELL AS
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED, AS A PREDICTED NORTHWARD DRIFT OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LATER IN THE PERIOD IS SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION AS TIME
PROGRESSES, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH
PREDICTED MEAN CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR
HAWAII FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO VERY WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
2026-06-20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20170623 - 20190619 - 20000624 - 19980603 - 20190612
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190617 - 20000627 - 20190612 - 20170623 - 19980603
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - 30 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N
UTAH N B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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