206
FXUS01 KWBC 210811
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VALID 12Z SUN JUN 21 2026 - 12Z TUE JUN 23 2026
...IMPACTFUL FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST TODAY; SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TOMORROW ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW...
...SWELTERING HEAT REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS BRINGS MILD CONDITIONS IN THE TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S....
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY
WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FLASH FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS IT INTERACTS WITH A POTENT SUMMERTIME AIRMASS. THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST CAN EXPECT A NOISY START TO
THE DAY AS AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX RUMBLES EASTWARD
ALONG A RETURNING WARM FRONT THIS MORNING. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY
AND EVENTUAL REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST HAVE OUR ATTENTION FOR THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
IMPACTFUL FLASH FLOODING OWING TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND SATURATED SOIL IN THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A
CONCERN WITH THE AFTERNOON ROUND AS WELL, WITH PARTS OF THE
PLAINS, OZARKS, AND OHIO VALLEY AT RISK FOR FOR LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND, AND A FEW TORNADOES. BY TOMORROW MORNING, THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE OZARKS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOODING TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS AN EXPANSIVE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST TODAY ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND REMNANT
OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS.
DESPITE GENERALLY NEAR-AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID-90S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNCOMFORTABLY HOT THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH STIFLING
HUMIDITY PRESENT. MEANWHILE, FRONTAL PASSAGES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL USHER IN BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS,
MIDWEST, AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS IN THE
70S WILL BE COMMON. A MOSTLY NEAR AVERAGE TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE
WEEKEND CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S. CONDITIONS WILL TREND HOTTER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S. COASTAL REGIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER AND
IN THE 60S AND 70S WHILE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 100S.
ASHERMAN
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