106
FXUS06 KWBC 211901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN JUNE 21 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 01, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THERE IS GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE EAST, WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO EXIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AT
THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, WITH A BROADENING RIDGE IN ITS WAKE. THE MANUAL
HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS,
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LARGEST NEGATIVE ANOMALIES
(-60 METERS) ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS (+30 METERS) ARE INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. HOWEVER, HIGHER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE MORE LIKELY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF THE EXPANDING RIDGING.
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR ALASKA TIED TO RIDGING CENTERED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED FOR HAWAII AS A MID-LEVEL
LOW PASSES NEAR THE STATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN PLAINS RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY GIVEN THE TREND
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING. THIS COOLER SIGNAL IS APPARENT IN BOTH THE
REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE, ANALOGS, AND FURTHER SUPPORTED THROUGH
TELECONNECTION ANALYSIS WITH THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA. CONVERSELY, PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS. THERE IS A PREDICTED UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH EXTREME HEAT CONCERNS EMERGING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL TOOLS AS WELL
AS A TELECONNECTION WITH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC AND THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN CANADA IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE
INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, FOUR CORNERS, AND EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TIED TO WEAKER FORCING AND
SUPPORTED BY THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS
FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE OVERTOP THE RIDGE BRINGING
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE STATE, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARD INCREASED
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII TIED TO A MID LEVEL LOW PREDICTED ACROSS THE REGION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY ACROSS
THE WEST DUE TO THE TREND TOWARD MORE TROUGHING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 29 - JUL 05, 2026
DURING WEEK-2, ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A QUICK DEPARTURE OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST AND
SUBSEQUENT 500-HPA HEIGHT RISES. FOR THE EAST, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE LATER IN WEEK-2 AS THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT PLAINS. WHILE THE 0Z GEFS IS FASTEST WITH THIS
PROGRESSION, RECENT MODEL SKILL SCORE SUPPORTS GIVING MORE WEIGHT TO THE SLOWER
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS.THE WEEK-2 MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS A BROAD REGION OF
+30 METER HEIGHT ANOMALIES EAST OF THE ROCKIES, AND CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS
FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO
FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE STATE. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII DUE TO THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ACROSS THE STATE.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS, AND ALSO ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WHILE THE STRONGEST SIGNALS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY
EXTREME HEAT ARE DEPICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE
WESTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE FAVORS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF WEEK-2. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEST FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE, WITH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY EARLY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND. NEAR-
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA TIED TO PERIODS OF
ENHANCED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC AND
THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
WESTWARD SHIFTING RIDGING SUPPORTS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FRONTAL AND
MCS ACTIVITY OVERTOP THE RIDGE AXIS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN
40 PERCENT) OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE CONTINUED TO BE REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH, WITH A TILT TOWARD NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS EVIDENCED BY FAIRLY LOW WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR ENHANCED SOUTHWEST MONSOON MOISTURE, SLIGHTLY INCREASING
THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND LOWER
FOUR CORNERS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA
TIED TO A CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING SEA. PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL LOWS TRACKING NEAR HAWAII FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY A SHIFTING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS, AND WEAK PRECIPITATION SIGNALS.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190620 - 19980603 - 20170623 - 20000624 - 20040626
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190617 - 20000628 - 19980604 - 20190612 - 20170624
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 01, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 29 - JUL 05, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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