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FXUS06 KWBC 221902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 22 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 02, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A
STABLE HIGH-LATITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALY DIPOLE REMAINS, WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE ARCTIC AND RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER NORTHERN
CANADA. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE, AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH ADDITIONAL RIDGING
BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND
DEPICTS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LARGEST NEGATIVE ANOMALIES (-60 METERS)
ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED IN AMPLITUDE ACROSS THE EAST. BY DAY-10, THE GEFS IS
FASTER TO RETROGRADE THE RIDGE WEST TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS AND FOUR CORNERS.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST LEANS ON THE SLOWER ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL, WHICH MAINTAINS A 594-595 DM 500-HPA HEIGHT MAXIMUM
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST FOR ALASKA TIED TO RIDGING CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE,
ALTHOUGH EASTWARD PROPAGATING SHORTWAVES FAVOR WEAKER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA COMPARED TO THE ALEUTIANS. NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED FOR HAWAII.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED EAST OF THE ROCKIES,
WITH EXTREME HEAT CONCERNS EMERGING OVER MANY AREAS DURING THE WEEK LEADING UP
TO THE JULY 4 HOLIDAY. CONVERSELY, CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN PLAINS DUE TO AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING. THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) ARE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES OF -10 TO -15 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON THE UNCALIBRATED
GUIDANCE, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE REFORECAST TOOLS AND ANALOGS. NEAR-
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL
SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC AND THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN CANADA IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, FOUR CORNERS, AND
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TIED TO WEAKER
FORCING AND SUPPORTED BY THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER MOST OF ALASKA AS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE OVERTOP THE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII TIED TO PERIODIC MID-LEVEL
LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
THE GEFS BEING QUICKER TO RETROGRADE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CONUS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 06, 2026
DURING WEEK-2, ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A QUICK DEPARTURE OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST AND
SUBSEQUENT 500-HPA HEIGHT RISES. FOR THE EAST, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE LATER IN WEEK-2 AS THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT PLAINS. WHILE THE 0Z GEFS IS FASTEST WITH THIS
PROGRESSION, RECENT MODEL SKILL SUPPORTS GIVING MORE WEIGHT TO THE SLOWER ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH +60 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
INDICATED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RIDGING TO THE SOUTH
OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE STATE,
ALTHOUGH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES RESULT IN A LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS
HAWAII WITH THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD, AND ALSO INCLUDING THE FOUR CORNERS AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SIGNALS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A MAJOR, WIDESPREAD HEAT WAVE IN
THE WEEK LEADING UP TO JULY 4, WITH THE CORE OF THE HEAT POSSIBLY SHIFTING FROM
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY THE END OF WEEK-2.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE ROCKIES FOR THE
PERIOD AS A WHOLE, WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY EARLY, FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS
ALASKA TIED TO CONTINUED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE, ALTHOUGH ODDS ARE
REDUCED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALASKA GIVEN A WARMER SIGNAL IN SOME OF THE
UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC AND THE
REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
WESTWARD SHIFTING RIDGING SUPPORTS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FRONTAL AND
MCS ACTIVITY OVERTOP THE RIDGE AXIS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN
40 PERCENT) OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
REDUCED SIGNALS FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH, WITH A TILT TOWARD
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS EVIDENCED BY FAIRLY LOW WEEK-2
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR ENHANCED SOUTHWEST MONSOON MOISTURE,
SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND LOWER FOUR CORNERS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR MOST OF ALASKA TIED TO A CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING
SEA. PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL LOWS TRACKING NEAR HAWAII FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY A SHIFTING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS, AND WEAK PRECIPITATION SIGNALS.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190620 - 20040626 - 19980603 - 19910705 - 20000625
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190618 - 20000628 - 19980604 - 20190613 - 20040626
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 02, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 06, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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