658
FXUS06 KWBC 231902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 23 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 29 - JUL 03, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A
STABLE HIGH-LATITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALY DIPOLE REMAINS, WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE ARCTIC AND RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER NORTHERN
CANADA. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE, AMPLIFIED TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS ALASKA AND AMPLIFYING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA OR THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. BROAD RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A 594-DM 500-HPA CLOSED HEIGHT CENTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DEPICTED BY DAY-10 IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY, POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED IN AMPLITUDE ACROSS THE
EAST IN THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND, WITH A +90 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
INDICATED FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS TIED TO RIDGING CENTERED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FAVORS NEAR-
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED FOR HAWAII.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED EAST OF THE ROCKIES,
WITH EXTREME HEAT CONCERNS EMERGING OVER MANY AREAS DURING THE WEEK LEADING UP
TO THE JULY 4 HOLIDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) ARE
CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. CONVERSELY, CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING. THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60
PERCENT) ARE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -10 TO -15 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON THE
UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE REFORECAST TOOLS AND
ANALOGS. DECREASING NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY BY DAY-10,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL
SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC AND THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN CANADA IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED FROM THE GREAT BASIN
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST TIED TO WEAKER FORCING
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS AND SUPPORTED BY THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER MOST OF
ALASKA AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE OVERTOP THE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STATE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII TIED TO PERIODIC
MID-LEVEL LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA PATTERN
EVOLUTION, OFFSET BY WEAKENING PRECIPITATION SIGNALS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 07 2026
DURING WEEK-2, ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS LEADS TO A QUICK DEPARTURE OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST AND
SUBSEQUENT 500-HPA HEIGHT RISES. FOR THE EAST, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE LATER IN WEEK-2 AS THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT PLAINS. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH +60 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES.
CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHING EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. WHILE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES FAVOR NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII
WITH THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE
STATE.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD, AND ALSO INCLUDING PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHWEST. A MAJOR, WIDESPREAD HEAT WAVE IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN THE WEEK
LEADING UP TO JULY 4, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE EAST BEGINNING LATE IN WEEK-2 AS TROUGHING INCREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RETROGRADING RIDGE, WITH POSSIBLE LINKAGE TO PACIFIC MJO
PROPAGATION. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST, WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE LIKELY FARTHER EAST. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA TIED TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING. NEAR-
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA GIVEN CONTINUED
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE, ALTHOUGH ODDS ARE REDUCED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA GIVEN A WARMER SIGNAL IN SOME OF THE
UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE AND THE ANALOGS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC AND THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC TIED TO RETROGRADING RIDGING POTENTIALLY PUSHING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION AND POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY EARLY IN WEEK-2.
DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN WEEK-2 TIED TO INCREASING TROUGHING OR SURFACE LOW
FORMATION. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ODDS ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNDERNEATH RIDGING. THE
RIDGE AXIS IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR ENHANCED
SOUTHWEST MONSOON MOISTURE, SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS. A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGHING NEAR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF
ALASKA TIED TO A CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING SEA.
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL LOWS TRACKING NEAR HAWAII FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY A SHIFTING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS, AND WEAK PRECIPITATION SIGNALS.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190621 - 19980630 - 20040627 - 20020614 - 19910705
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190619 - 19910706 - 19980604 - 20040626 - 20000625
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 29 - JUL 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B B NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B N WYOMING B B
UTAH B B ARIZONA B A COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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