770
FXUS06 KWBC 241917
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JUNE 24 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 04, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
OVERALL AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, WITH ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD AND THE AMPLITUDE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODEL 500-HPA
HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. A MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY DIPOLE PERSISTS AT HIGH LATITUDES, WITH A
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE ARCTIC AND A POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY
OVER NORTHERN CANADA. AT MID-LATITUDES, A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, AMPLIFYING OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
AND PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OF THE CONUS LATER
IN THE PERIOD. A BROAD RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXPAND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND RETROGRESS WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DECREASE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALL MODELS PREDICT A POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY
OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AT THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE ARCTIC EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED EAST OF THE ROCKIES,
WITH EXTREME HEAT CONCERNS OVER MANY AREAS DURING THE BEGINNING OF WEEK 2. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND SUPPORTED BY MOST MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES ARE MORE NEGATIVE EARLIER IN THE PERIOD, AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED TO RISE LATER IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER ALASKA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE
OVERTOP THE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS,
AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF REFORECAST
CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS FORECASTS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR
AREAS OF INTERIOR CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. THE FORECAST
CIRCULATION PATTERN IS INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST MONSOON
LATER IN THE PERIOD, WITH THE AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
SUPPORTED BY REFORECAST CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS FORECASTS AND THE
CONSOLIDATION. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN ENHANCED FOR
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THIS REGION. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS, CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION ANOMALY FORECAST. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS AND
MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY A CHANGING
CIRCULATION PATTERN AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION SIGNALS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 08 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL PREDICT A SIMILAR PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD FORECASTS, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF
ANOMALIES. A RIDGE RETROGRESSES FROM THE EASTERN TO THE WESTERN CONUS,
DECREASING 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST AND INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST,
AS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE PERIOD.
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS IN THE MANUAL
BLEND OF MODELS. CLOSER TO AVERAGE HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
WEST COAST DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ALASKA LEADS TO POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. PERSISTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FAVORS NEAR-AVERAGE HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINLAND
ALASKA.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON, INFLUENCED BY CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC. A
WIDESPREAD HEAT WAVE IS LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CONUS
AND THE EASTERN CONUS. PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
8-14 DAY PERIOD EXCEED 60 PERCENT IN A LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
MIDWEST, AND OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND CONTINUED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, WHERE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS INDICATE GREATER UNCERTAINTY.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD,
CONSISTENT WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE SSTS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND CONTINUED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING. AS THE CIRCULATION
PATTERN EVOLVES, MODEL PRECIPITATION SIGNALS WEAKEN AND NEAR-NORMAL IS FAVORED
FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN WEEK 2, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN OREGON, AND WESTERN NEVADA,
CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST CALIBRATED ECMWF PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS PREDICT AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST MONSOON AND FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR A LARGE AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AS A RIDGE RETROGRESSES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION ANOMALY FORECAST. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION,
CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS AND
MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST, OFFSET BY A CHANGING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS, AND WEAK PRECIPITATION SIGNALS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980630 - 20190621 - 20130611 - 20020614 - 20040627
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190619 - 19980630 - 20040626 - 20130611 - 19910705
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B B NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH B B ARIZONA B A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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