273
FXUS06 KWBC 251906
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 25 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 05 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
OVERALL AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, WITH ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD AND THE AMPLITUDE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODEL 500-HPA
HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. A MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY DIPOLE PERSISTS AT HIGH LATITUDES, WITH A
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE ARCTIC AND A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER
NORTHERN CANADA. AT THE MID-LATITUDES, AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE
WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) THAT DECREASES IN AMPLITUDE WITH TIME.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THAT
QUICKLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD THAT RETROGRESS WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DECREASE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALL MODELS PREDICT A POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTERED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AT THE START OF THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD THAT BROADENS OVER TIME. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING QUICKLY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE BERING SEA AND PROGRESSES INTO MAINLAND ALASKA DURING THE PERIOD.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED EAST OF THE ROCKIES,
WITH EXTREME HEAT CONCERNS OVER MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHERN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, UNDER A
PREDICTED TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND SUPPORTED BY MOST MODEL TEMPERATURE
TOOLS. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER ALASKA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE
OVERTOP THE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF REFORECAST CALIBRATED
ECMWF AND GEFS FORECASTS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR A SMALL
AREA OF INTERIOR CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. THE FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN IS INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST MONSOON LATER IN THE PERIOD, WITH THE AREA OF
FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION SUPPORTED BY REFORECAST CALIBRATED ECMWF AND
GEFS FORECASTS AND THE CONSOLIDATION. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS, THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA, CONSISTENT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION ANOMALY FORECAST. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS AND MOST DYNAMICAL
MODEL TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY A CHANGING
CIRCULATION PATTERN AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION SIGNALS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 09 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL PREDICT A SIMILAR PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD FORECASTS, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF
ANOMALIES. A RIDGE RETROGRESSES FROM THE EASTERN TO THE WESTERN CONUS,
DECREASING 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST AND INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST,
AS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE LATER HALF OF WEEK
2. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS IN THE
MANUAL BLEND OF MODELS. CLOSER TO AVERAGE HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE WEST COAST DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING NEAR THE COAST. THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ALASKA LEADS TO POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. PERSISTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FAVORS NEAR-AVERAGE HEIGHTS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
OREGON AND WASHINGTON, INFLUENCED BY CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC. A
WIDESPREAD HEAT WAVE IS LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
EXCEED 60 PERCENT IN A LARGE AREA COVERING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
MIDWEST, AND SOUTHEAST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS
AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL FORECAST
TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND CONTINUED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS INDICATE GREATER UNCERTAINTY. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY
LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
SSTS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND
CONTINUED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN WEEK 2, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS PREDICT AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST MONSOON
AND FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AS A RIDGE RETROGRESSES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE GULF
COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION ANOMALY FORECAST. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY, UNDER THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY AND CONSISTENT WITH
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS AND MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST, OFFSET BY A CHANGING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, AND DIFFERENCES AMONG PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980629 - 20160701 - 20130612 - 20090704 - 20190621
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980630 - 20130611 - 20160702 - 20190619 - 20020614
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 05 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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