815
FXUS01 KWBC 252001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
VALID 00Z FRI JUN 26 2026 - 00Z SUN JUN 28 2026
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HEAT STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND EXPANDING
NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY...
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN FRIDAY; FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM (WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT) IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MEANDER THERE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THIS FRONT AND
BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE SEVERE PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
RISKS OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AREAS OF THE FRONT IN WYOMING, THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS, AND EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES IN A LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH TONIGHT (THURSDAY NIGHT),
HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORM COMPLEXES. WPC HAS A
MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT CENTERED IN SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NEARBY, AND FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT AS WELL. SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD MOVE EAST JUST A TOUCH ON FRIDAY,
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY,
WITH SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. BY SATURDAY
THESE STORMS SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TO MID-ATLANTIC, WITH LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION COULD BECOME SEVERE BY SATURDAY AS A REASONABLY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL BE RATHER DRY, AND
SEE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WINDS
INCREASE. THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES COULD HAVE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, WHEN AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL RISK AREA IS
DELINEATED. ONGOING FIRES ALONG WITH ANY NEW FIRES THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY AND CAN EXHIBIT EXTREME
FIRE BEHAVIOR. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY AND WINDY WEATHER. AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.
AFTER HOT WEATHER TODAY (THURSDAY), THE WEST CAN EXPECT COOLER
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE GENERALLY 10-20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WEST COAST STATES TO NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN ON FRIDAY, COOLING FURTHER ON SATURDAY AND REACHING MOST
AREAS WEST OF THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM IN THE SOUTHERN TIER UNDER A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 100S IN PARTS OF TEXAS
AND WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WHICH IS A
PRECURSOR TO EVEN MORE HEAT IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. NEXT
WEEK.
TATE
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