477
FXUS01 KWBC 260434
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1233 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VALID 12Z FRI JUN 26 2026 - 12Z SUN JUN 28 2026
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. THE NEXT FEW DAYS; WITH EXPANSION ACROSS EASTERN
U.S BY SATURDAY...
...HEAT STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. BY SATURDAY,
WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREAD FROM THE WEST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES...
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY; FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THIS WEEKEND...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
TIER OF CONUS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND FORCING,
CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. THEREFORE, WPC HAS HIGHLIGHT A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA FOR FRIDAY, WHILE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION, FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE PRESENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHERE
TRAINING MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE FLOODING THREAT MOVES
OVER EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE BY SATURDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES SEMI-STATIONARY, WHILE STRETCHING INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
OVER NORTHWESTERN U.S. A COUPLE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND WILL STRETCH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY SATURDAY. THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING FLOODING CONCERNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS MOISTURE BUILDS FROM THE LOW-LEVEL
JET AND TRAINING/ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THEREFORE, WPC HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SPC HIGHLIGHTS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW, BRINGING CHANCES FOR CLUSTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CHANCES
FOR DAMAGING WINDS ON SATURDAY.
OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS AS POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL ENHANCE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY, WITH A EXTREME (LEVEL 3/3) RISK LEVEL. IN ADDITION,
SEVERAL AREAS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST HAVE BEEN PLACED
UNDER FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AND RED FLAG WARNINGS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE WEST, COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SIMILARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHEAST, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH HIGHS WITHIN THE 70S. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES
WITHIN THE 90S AND LOW 100S.
OUDIT
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