740
FXUS01 KWBC 261854
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VALID 00Z SAT JUN 27 2026 - 00Z MON JUN 29 2026
...NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT
ACROSS THE OZARKS VICINITY TODAY AMONGST A BROADER FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TOMORROW...
...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TOMORROW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WEEKEND...
...HEAT BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTH INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A MORE
WIDESPREAD EXPANSION INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A DANGEROUS
CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. HEAT WAVE BEGINS...
AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WEATHER HAZARDS
ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A MEANDERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC TODAY
(FRIDAY), AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
REPEATED DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT LONG-DURATION RAINFALL/HIGH TOTALS. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (ERO) (LEVEL 3/4) TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MO/KS/AR/OK BORDER REGION INTO THE OZARKS WHERE NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/4) FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO BRING THE RISK OF A FEW MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER, WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)
INCLUDING A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK ERO IS IN PLACE
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WHERE THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA/THE
VIRGINIA TIDEWATER AS SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY
BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS NOTABLE AS AN UPPER-RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVERHEAD.
TO THE WEST, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO DIG
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. BRINGING MUCH COOLER, UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A LEADING UPPER-WAVE ROUNDING THE TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO DEEP LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT/REINFORCEMENT OF A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE SPC MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. INCREASING UPPER-FLOW
WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) NOW IN PLACE FOR THE THREAT OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT WILL
SPREAD FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AND A SLIGHT RISK ERO IS IN PLACE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES UNDER
THE DEEPENING UPPER-TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE UPWARDS OF 25-35 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WITH
MOSTLY 60S THROUGHOUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND
INTERIOR WEST, WITH 80S THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND 90S TO LOW
100S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL NATURE OF THE
PATTERN WILL EVEN BRING SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW (4-8"+
ACCUMULATIONS) TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, GENERALLY
ABOVE 6500 FEET. IN ADDITION, A DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS
REGION WHERE THE SPC HAS OUTLOOKED AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL RISK OF
FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/3) TODAY WITH AT LEAST A CRITICAL FIRE RISK
REMAINING IN PLACE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
INCOMING TROUGH, EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITY, AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS/FUELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID GROWTH OF ONGOING FIRES
AND THE HIGH THREAT OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPING FIRES.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FIRST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEFORE EXPANDING MORE BROADLY OVER THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD
TO EXPANDING AREAS OF MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVELS 2/3 OF
4), LEVELS OF HEAT THAT BEGIN TO BECOME A THREAT TO ANYONE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING/HYDRATION. THEN, AS THE RIDGE
EXPANDS ON SUNDAY, MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL ONLY BE THE START OF AN EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD, LONG-DURATION, AND DANGEROUS HEATWAVE HEADING INTO THE
WEEK BEFORE THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWER TO
INCREASE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST, WHERE MORE PLEASANT BELOW TO AROUND
AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, AHEAD
OF THE HEAT INTO NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE WPC'S HEAT KEY MESSAGES FOR
MORE DETAILS ESPECIALLY BEYOND THE CURRENT SHORT-RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FLORIDA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
PUTNAM
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