779
FXUS06 KWBC 261933
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUNE 26 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 06 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
OVERALL AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF,
GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. ALL MODELS PREDICT A RIDGE AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AT THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THAT RETROGRESSES WESTWARD
OVER TIME. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA THAT EXTENDS INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS) BY ALL MODELS WITH VARYING AMPLITUDE. A RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD THAT RETROGRESS WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DECREASE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS.
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, UNDER A
PREDICTED AMPLIFIED TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND SUPPORTED BY MOST MODEL
TEMPERATURE TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED
EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH EXTREME HEAT CONCERNS OVER MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD, WHERE PROBABILITIES FAVORING
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE
OVERTOP THE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF REFORECAST CALIBRATED
ECMWF AND GEFS FORECASTS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM INTERIOR
CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, UNDER RISING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE THERE ARE
INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS AND MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY A CHANGING
CIRCULATION PATTERN AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION SIGNALS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 04 - 10 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL PREDICT AN EVOLUTION OF THE CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD AS RIDGES RETROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THE
CONUS, WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF RESULTING ANOMALIES. A
RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAT EXTEND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS AT THE START OF WEEK 2 RETROGRESS AND
BROADEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE OVER THE EAST AND INCREASE OVER THE WEST. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
8-14 DAY PERIOD, WITH WEAKENING ANOMALIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. A PREDICTED
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ALASKA LEADS TO POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE TROUGHING AND NEAR-AVERAGE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS EXTEND
FROM THE BERING SEA ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF
MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON, INFLUENCED BY CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC.
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD EXCEED
60 PERCENT FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND CONTINUED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WHERE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS INDICATE GREATER UNCERTAINTY. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT
WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE SSTS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND CONTINUED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN WEEK 2,
AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS
FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR A SMALLER AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST RELATIVE
TO YESTERDAY'S FORECASTS AND FAVOR BELOW NORMAL FOR PARTS OF NEVADA AND
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA, AS A RIDGE RETROGRESSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS AND
MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST, OFFSET BY A
CHANGING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, AND DIFFERENCES AMONG PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160701 - 19980629 - 20130612 - 20160706 - 19980708
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160702 - 19980629 - 20130611 - 20090704 - 20190621
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 06 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N N NEVADA B B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH N B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 04 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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