494
FXUS06 KWBC 271902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT JUNE 27 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 07 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
OVERALL AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF,
GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES A RIDGE AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AT THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THAT RETROGRESSES
WESTWARD OVER TIME. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
GULF OF ALASKA. A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS). WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MODEL FORECASTS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED
BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED EAST
OF THE ROCKIES, WITH EXTREME HEAT CONCERNS OVER MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD, WHERE PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXCEED 70 PERCENT. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA WITH A TROUGH
FORECAST OVER THE STATE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS, AND PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SUPPORTED BY MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FROM INTERIOR CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, UNDER RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE THERE ARE INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL FORECAST
TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS AND MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY A CHANGING
CIRCULATION PATTERN AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION SIGNALS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL PREDICT AN EVOLUTION OF THE CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD AS A RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THE
CONUS, WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF RESULTING ANOMALIES. THIS
RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST TOEXTEND FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AT THE START OF WEEK 2. AS A RESULT,
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE EAST AND INCREASE OVER THE
WEST. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS IN THE
MANUAL BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WITH WEAKENING ANOMALIES ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. A PREDICTED RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ALASKA LEADS TO
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE ALEUTIANS. WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON, INFLUENCED BY CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA, AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURE
TOOLS AND CONTINUED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS AS THE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE SSTS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND CONTINUED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING. DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECASTS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NEVADA AND INTERIOR
CALIFORNIA, AS A RIDGE RETROGRESSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
CONUS, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS AND MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST, OFFSET BY A
CHANGING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, AND DIFFERENCES AMONG PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160702 - 20160707 - 19980628 - 19980708 - 20130612
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160703 - 19980629 - 20130611 - 20160708 - 20110621
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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