679
FXUS06 KWBC 281902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN JUNE 28 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 04 - 08 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A PAIR OF ANOMALOUS HIGH-LATITUDE 500-HPA
RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF QUEBEC AND OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC, RESPECTIVELY. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THESE TWO ANCHORING FEATURES
SUPPORT WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPSTREAM RIDGING NEAR THE
HIGH PLAINS, BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. LARGE
SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF ANTICIPATED TROUGHING FORECAST NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. TODAY'S
MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM
THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z CANADIAN, BASED PRIMARILY ON ANALYSIS OF RECENT SKILL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT THE FAR
WEST, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOD-LEVEL HEIGHTS. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH, GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE, FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTER FORECAST OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
TROUGHING PREDICTED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, UNDERNEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE
NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE APPALACHIANS,
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST, BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH
TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE HIGH LATITUDE RIDGES PREDICTED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
AND THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC, RESPECTIVELY. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH MODESTLY ANOMALOUS
RIDGING. THE PREDICTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTER NEAR THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR AN ENHANCED MONSOON AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES
OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA, UNDERNEATH BROADLY
CYCLONIC FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, AS RAW
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACTIVE PATTERN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 06 - 12 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY EVOLVES INTO AN
OMEGA-LIKE PATTERN WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAK
TROUGHING ON EITHER SIDE OF IT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST, RESPECTIVELY. DURING THIS EVOLUTION, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY MIGRATES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. TROUGHING REMAINS PERSISTENT ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, HOWEVER THE
CENTER OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF THE MAINLAND WITH TIME. AS THIS OCCURS, MODEST HEIGHT RISES ARE
PREDICTED FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CONUS UNDERNEATH
PREDICTED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST (GENERALLY
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND GULF COAST DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE PREDICTED RIDGE ANOMALY CENTER
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SUPPORTS THE WARM SIGNAL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE
IS EVEN HIGHER FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF. ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS
SUPPORTS GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DUE TO PREDICTED NEARBY TROUGHS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, DUE TO PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW, ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE
GULF COAST, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD DRY
IS INDICATED FOR THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS, NEAR OR JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
THE PREDICTED MEAN RIDGE AXIS LOCATION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS,
ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED RIDGING. AN EXCEPTION IS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
AS A GRADUAL NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY LEAD TO MORE
FAVORABLE MONSOONAL CONDITIONS LATE IN WEEK-2. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA, AS A TROUGH CONSOLIDATES NEAR THE
WESTERN MAINLAND. AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS LIKELY FOR HAWAII, PARTICULARLY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS SUCH,
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEEDS 50 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN COUPLED WITH WEAK
OR CONFLICTING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160703 - 20160708 - 19980619 - 19980627 - 20110618
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160703 - 19980628 - 20160708 - 20130611 - 20110620
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 04 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 06 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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