672
FXUS06 KWBC 291912
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 29 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 09 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A PAIR OF ANOMALOUS HIGH-LATITUDE 500-HPA
RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF QUEBEC AND OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC, RESPECTIVELY. LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF
ALASKA WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENING NEAR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND A
SECOND SHORTWAVE PERSISTING NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
PEAKING IN INTENSITY AROUND DAY 8. AS THIS RIDGE DEVELOPS, WEAK TROUGHING IS
FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A PAIR OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND OFF OF THE FLORIDA COAST. A WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
IS DEPICTED ROUGHLY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING IS FORECAST NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND
IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z CANADIAN,
BASED PRIMARILY ON ANALYSIS OF RECENT SKILL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR
COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, UNDERNEATH
PREDICTED MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (60 - 80
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID -ATLANTIC, IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
HIGH, GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE, FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER FORECAST OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGHING PREDICTED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, UNDERNEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CORRESPONDING TO A PREDICTED WEAKNESS
IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH MODESTLY ANOMALOUS RIDGING. THERE ARE
INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF ALASKA, UNDERNEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN, AS RAW MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACTIVE
PATTERN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 07 - 13 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS WITH AN OMEGA-LIKE PATTERN
WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAK TROUGHING ON EITHER
SIDE OF IT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST,
RESPECTIVELY. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RE-EMERGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE. DURING
THIS EVOLUTION, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY MIGRATES
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TROUGHING REMAINS
PERSISTENT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, BEFORE
WEAKENING AND RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT. AS THIS OCCURS,
MODEST HEIGHT RISES ARE PREDICTED FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2
ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CONUS UNDERNEATH
PREDICTED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST (60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF. ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS
SUPPORTS GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT AREAS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, DUE TO PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED FROM MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD DRY IS
INDICATED FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF
THE ADJACENT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, NEAR OR JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PREDICTED MEAN RIDGE AXIS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED RIDGING. AN
EXCEPTION IS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AS A GRADUAL NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY LEAD TO MORE FAVORABLE MONSOONAL CONDITIONS LATE IN
WEEK-2. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO INDICATED FOR
PARTS OF MONTANA, BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL GUIDANCE AND
TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER PREDICTED OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ALASKA, DUE TO A PREDICTED TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN MAINLAND. AN ACTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS LIKELY FOR HAWAII, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEARBY MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS SUCH, PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXCEEDS 50 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN COUPLED WITH WEAK
OR CONFLICTING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160707 - 19980619 - 19980626 - 20110618 - 20200630
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160704 - 19980619 - 19980627 - 20160709 - 20110620
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 07 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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