981
FXUS06 KWBC 301923
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 30 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 06 - 10 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A PAIR OF ANOMALOUS HIGH-LATITUDE 500-HPA
RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF QUEBEC AND OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC, RESPECTIVELY. LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF
ALASKA WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND A
SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE PERSISTING NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH, ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
PEAKING IN INTENSITY AROUND DAY 7 AND 8. AS THIS RIDGE DEVELOPS, WEAK TROUGHING
IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). A PAIR OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OFF OF THE FLORIDA
COAST, RESPECTIVELY. A WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS DEPICTED ROUGHLY FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST
NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY
ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z CANADIAN, BASED PRIMARILY ON
ANALYSIS OF RECENT SKILL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR
COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, UNDERNEATH
PREDICTED MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (60 - 80
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, IN
PROXIMITY TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN SURROUNDING
WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH, GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE, FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS COASTAL AREAS
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
TROUGHING PREDICTED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, UNDERNEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CORRESPONDING TO A PREDICTED WEAKNESS
IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST
(GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, DUE TO POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. PARTS
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TILT DRY, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. A MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH MODESTLY ANOMALOUS RIDGING.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AS THE POSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. THERE ARE INCREASED
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF ALASKA,
UNDERNEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS
HAWAII, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN, AS RAW MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACTIVE PATTERN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 14 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS WITH AN OMEGA-LIKE PATTERN
WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAK TROUGHING ON EITHER
SIDE OF IT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST,
RESPECTIVELY. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RE-EMERGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE THIS UNCERTAINTY, A
MIGRATION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS IS FAVORED. TROUGHING REMAINS PERSISTENT ACROSS ALASKA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER, HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO RISE
MODESTLY ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE STATE. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
INTO AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CONUS UNDERNEATH
PREDICTED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST (60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA, IN PROXIMITY TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL
SSTS IN THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF. ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS SUPPORTS GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, DUE TO PREDICTED CYCLONIC
FLOW, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, MOST OF THE
LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNDERNEATH PREDICTED WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD DRY IS INDICATED FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
PARTS OF THE UPPER THIRD OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE ADJACENT
CENTRAL PLAINS, NEAR OR JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE PREDICTED MEAN RIDGE AXIS. NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED RIDGING. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH,
A MIGRATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS IS FORECAST,
LEADING TO MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AN ENHANCED MONSOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ALASKA, DUE TO PREDICTED MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS LIKELY
FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS SUCH, PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEEDS 50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN COUPLED WITH WEAK
OR CONFLICTING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980619 - 19980625 - 20160707 - 20200630 - 20110618
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160704 - 19980621 - 19980626 - 20160709 - 20110620
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 06 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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