178
FXUS06 KWBC 011933
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 01 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 07 - 11 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
OVERALL AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS AND UNCERTAINTY
RELATED TO CHANGES IN THE PREDICTED PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL
HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT
FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL.
ALL MODELS PREDICT A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED NEAR
NORTHERN QUEBEC AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THAT DEAMPLIFIES WITH TIME. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA OVER THE BERING SEA. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS)
IN ALL MODEL FORECASTS, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.
WEAK ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAII DURING THE
PERIOD.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COASTS OF MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR INTERIOR
MAINLAND ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION OF REFORECAST CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. CONSISTENT WITH THE PREDICTED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS,
EXCEPT FOR WESTERN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE AXIS. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70 PERCENT
FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH POSITIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN ADJACENT WATERS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFF OF THE COAST. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS,
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND A PREDICTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND
PARTS OF OREGON AND NEVADA, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AS THE LOCATION OF THE ANOMALOUS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION LATER
IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM MUCH OF THE GREAT
PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION ANOMALY FORECAST.
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS, CONSISTENT WITH
PREDICTED LARGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 15 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL PREDICT A SIMILAR MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN TO THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECMWF MODEL PREDICTS A MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND GREATER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL CONUS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. WEAKER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN THE MANUAL BLEND,
WHICH WEIGHTS THE ECMWF MODEL GREATEST. ALL MODELS PREDICT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WEAK TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC FLOW PERSIST TO THE NORTHEAST OF
HAWAII INTO WEEK 2.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, PARTS OF THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CYCLONIC FLOW PERSIST OVER THE STATE. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF INTERIOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, WHERE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS ARE INCONSISTENT. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CONUS IN WEEK 2, AS A
PREDICTED RIDGE AND BROAD POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DOMINATE THE
PATTERN. THE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCREASE FOR MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERIOR WEST, AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO RISE.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR COASTAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON, AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION AND
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN ADJACENT WATERS.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION ANOMALY FORECAST AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS IN WEEK 2, WITH
GREATER UNCERTAINTY AND WEAK SIGNALS IN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AS THE LOCATION OF THE
RIDGE BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE CENTRAL AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50
PERCENT FOR SOME ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE GREATER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST, OFFSET BY A CHANGING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, AND INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980625 - 19980619 - 20200630 - 20160707 - 20110619
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980625 - 20160708 - 19980620 - 20200630 - 20160703
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 07 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 15 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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