850
FXUS01 KWBC 011955
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2026
VALID 00Z THU JUL 02 2026 - 00Z SAT JUL 04 2026
...PROLONGED AND DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE RAMPS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST, SOUTHEAST, AND NORTHEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE
FOUR CORNERS THROUGH FRIDAY...
A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED AND DANGEROUS HEATWAVE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. MANY AREAS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST ARE SET TO
BREAK RECORDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SOAR TO
BETWEEN 95 AND 105 DEGREES. WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 70S, PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 115 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
THESE EXTREME DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN CONJUNCTION WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL POSE A RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES,
ESPECIALLY FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S., KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO EJECT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHERE THEY WILL INTERACT WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FUELING THREATS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE WEATHER. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LIKELY TRACK INTO
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AS COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING WOULD BE THE GREATEST CONCERNS FROM ANY CLUSTERS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER SOUTH, DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF COAST,
SOUTHEAST, AND FLORIDA AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL
RATES, WHICH CAN LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. SOME STORMS MAY
EVEN BECOME SEVERE, PRODUCING LOCALIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
RISKS.
OUT WEST, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS OVER PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AS
STRONG TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS COMBINE WITH DRY AIR AND EXCEPTIONALLY
DRY FUELS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE LONGEVITY OF SEVERAL
ONGOING LARGE FIRES ACROSS THE REGION, MANY OF WHICH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF AGGRESSIVE AND EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET EACH DAY, BUT POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
MILLER
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