657
FXUS02 KWBC 021942
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 05 2026 - 12Z THU JUL 09 2026
..MAJOR HEATWAVE TO SETTLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK
..PATTERN OVERVIEW
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTING A SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS HEAT
WAVE HEADING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD FLATTEN INTO NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER HAZARDOUS HEAT MAY STILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EAST, LINGERING NEXT WEEK FOR THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WHILE ALSO BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE,
A STILL BROADLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL BROADLY
FUEL WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS STORMS
OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY AS ENHANCED BY
BOUNDARIES AND AS A SERIES OF HARD TO TIME IMPULSES RIDE OVERTOP
THE RIDGE. SPC OFFERS A MID-ATLANTIC SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS REMAIN REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED AT MID-LARGER
SCALES. MOST OF THE MODEL, ENSEMBLE AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
ISSUES REMAIN AT SMALLER SCALES AND ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTIVE
FOCUS, ALBEIT WITHIN GENERALLY SIMILAR BUT BROAD AREAS OF CONCERN.
A GUIDANCE BLEND FAVORING THE MODELS SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE ONWARD NEXT WEEK
SEEMS TO BEST MITIGATE SMALLER SCALE VARIANCES AS CONSISTENT WITH
INDIVIDUAL FEATURE PREDICTABILLITY THAT LOWERS OVER TIME.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A MAJOR ONGOING HEAT WAVE OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE EAST
SHOULD FINALLY BE LESSENING BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH NOT
AS HOT AS THE SHORT RANGE, TEMPERATURES MAY STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL INTO SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EAST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY MAY STILL APPROACH THE 90S TO LOW
100S FOR SOME, BUT ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AND POSSIBLY COULD BE
RESTRICTED BY INCREASING CLOUDS/CONVECTION AS THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN
CONTINUES. HEATRISK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE MAJOR TO EXTREME
CATEGORY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH, WITH MAJOR TO LOCALIZED EXTREME EVEN
PERSISTING LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE BORADLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE NATION THIS WEEKEND WITHIN A
VERY WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. FAIRLY WEAK OVERALL FLOW
MAY ALSO HELP TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION, WITH POSSIBLY SOME BETTER CONVECTION
FOCUS NEAR A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. FAVORABLE GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE PROMPTED INTRODUCTION OF
A WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK DAY 4/SUNDAY SLIGHT RISK THREAT
AREA FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. BROADER MARGINAL RISK AREAS
REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVEN POTENTIAL FROM THE MID-
SOUTH AND OHIO VALLEY REGION TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND VICINITY.
ELSEWHERE, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO FLORIDA MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE. SHOWERS MAY REFIRE AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS, AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
TIER AHEAD OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE REST OF THE WEST
LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SANTORELLI/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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