924
FXUS01 KWBC 031834
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2026
VALID 00Z SAT JUL 04 2026 - 00Z MON JUL 06 2026
...DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY
WEEKEND...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY...
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THESE REGIONS WITH A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND INDEPENDENCE
DAY, WITH AN EMBEDDED ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO WESTERN IOWA FOR TODAY. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS. STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TODAY AND MIDWEST TO
MID-ATLANTIC ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALSO BE
DEALING WITH THE ONGOING RECORD-BREAKING HEATWAVE THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 95-105 DEGREES
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100-115 DEGREES. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD MAJOR
TO EXTREME HEATRISK AND WILL BE DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT
COOLING OR HYDRATION. OUTDOOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES MAY BE
IMPACTED BE THESE EXTREME TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ONSHORE IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND WILL BE GENERALLY PRETTY DRY
ASIDE FROM SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN WASHINGTON STATE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
U.S., BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DRY AND GUSTY WEATHER ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WILL PROLONG CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
REGION.
DOLAN
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