517
FXUS06 KWBC 031902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JULY 03 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 13 2026
DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT A TRANSITIONAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH A FAIRLY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE QUICKER
TO BUILD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, ALL OF THE
MODELS DEPICT A 598-DM 500-HPA HEIGHT CENTER ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS BY DAY-10.
THIS LEADS TO EXPANDING COVERAGE OF +60 METER ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE DEPICTS A MORE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, WHILE THE GEFS FAVORS THE LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES FROM THE PLAINS AND TO THE WEST. MORE TROUGHING IS DEPICTED
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NEAR FLORIDA
AND INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND INDICATES
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND
CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA
TIED TO AMPLIFIED TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED
BY ADDITIONAL TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES (GREATER THAN 70
PERCENT). INCREASED TROUGHING DECREASES THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND
ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA FAVOR HIGHER PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS
DEPICTED IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS. ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES. HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE TREND TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST FAVORS INCREASING ODDS
OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGHING SLIGHTLY
TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LOWER FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS IS PREDICTED TO MOVE
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION LEADING TO
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO BE MORE VARIABLE ACROSS THE EAST, WITH TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVE
FRONTAL ACTIVITY FAVORING WEAKLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FAVOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE WEST, OFFSET BY
WEAKER PRECIPITATION SIGNALS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 17 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO WEEK-2, WITH ALL OF THESE MODELS
DEPICTING A 597-598 DM 500-HPA HEIGHT MAXIMA OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON DAYS 10
AND 11, WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THE LEAD. THE BROADENING RIDGE FAVORS
EXPANSION OF ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS,
WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FAVORING LARGER COVERAGE OF ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS INTO
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES, WHILE THE GEFS DEPICTS STRONGER TROUGHING ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND LEADS TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
WEST. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, WITH +60 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST, AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
PERIODIC SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO FAVOR NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
UNDERNEATH MORE INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
CONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE, HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH PROBABILITIES ABOVE
70 PERCENT CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. PROBABILITIES DECREASE FARTHER TO
THE EAST GIVEN LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE AND MORE INTERMITTENT TROUGHING
RESULTING IN A MORE VARIABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN. THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z GEFS
LEANS TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, MOST OTHER GUIDANCE IS COMPARATIVELY WARMER RESULTING IN A
WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
TIED TO ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL RIDING AND ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF AMERICA. TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADDITIONAL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA FAVORS ENHANCED ODDS FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING
SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TIED TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SUPPORTED BY MOST TOOLS. FRONTAL ACTIVITY LEADS TO
ELEVATED ODDS OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS,
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST MONSOON CIRCULATION TO INCREASE
ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND LOWER FOUR
CORNERS. CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM TROUGHING RESULTS IN PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS ALASKA, WITH A TILT TOWARD ENHANCED ODDS OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE, AND ALSO SPREADING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
STRONG SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TIED TO
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING, OFFSET BY WEAKER SIGNALS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S
AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980625 - 19940706 - 20200701 - 20140618 - 20160708
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980625 - 20160708 - 19980620 - 20200630 - 20140617
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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