402
FXUS02 KWBC 031956
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VALID 12Z MON JUL 6 2026 - 12Z FRI JUL 10 2026
..MAJOR HEATWAVE TO SETTLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK
19Z UPDATE: GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK. THE CMC IS DISPLACED MORE TO THE WEST
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY,
AND A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT,
THE GFS/GEFS ARE STRONGER WITH BUILDING UP THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER
RIDGE THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING HEAT. IN TERMS OF THE
NBM, MORE QPF WAS ADDED TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR
MOST AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS WHERE THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAD
MORE THAN THE NBM, AND DAYTIME HIGHS WERE LOWERED FOR MOST AREAS
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND THE EAST COAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION IS APPENDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. /HAMRICK
-------------------
..PATTERN OVERVIEW
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. NEXT
WEEK, WHILE TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A MAJOR
HEATWAVE, WHILE THE TROUGHING TO THE NORTH WILL GENERATE DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MEAN TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION
OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND CONSISTING OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND AI
GUIDANCE WAS USED ON DAYS 3 AND 4. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN ENSEMBLE MEANS SINCE THE UKMET AND EURO AIFS PRODUCED
AN OVERAMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
PIECES OF GUIDANCE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A MAJOR HEATWAVE ENSUES ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING/QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW PERSIST SOUTH OF TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
WILL PULL WARM AND MOIST AIR THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERATE
DAILY HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE EAST WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY GENERATE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY. STORMS ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHIFT SOUTH INTO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTH THEN STALLS OUT. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAY PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ON TUESDAY.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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