454
FXUS06 KWBC 041902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT JULY 04 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 10 - 14 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND ARE CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
MODEL STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL
BLEND INDICATES A RIDGE WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING
SEA EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO MAINLAND ALASKA,THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND ALONG
THE WEST COAST. A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS), WHILE
A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
IN MODEL FORECASTS.
PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON, WHERE SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED), WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS (GREATER THAN
70 PERCENT) ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, AND
SURROUNDING REGIONS. INCREASED TROUGHING DECREASES THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA FAVOR HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AS DEPICTED IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
REFORECAST TOOLS. ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
OPERATIONAL AUTOBLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE
VICINITY.
THE TREND TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
FAVORS INCREASING ODDS OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGHING TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH PROBABILITIES
EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
ARIZONA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE MORE VARIABLE ACROSS THE EAST, WITH TROUGHING AND
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL ACTIVITY FAVORING WEAKLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FAVOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION
FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 12 - 18 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE MEAN
PATTERN FAVORS WEAK TROUGHING AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE BERING SEA, WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A RIDGE AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE STILL FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A TROUGH AND WEAK BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
CONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE, HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH PROBABILITIES ABOVE
70 PERCENT CENTERED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PROBABILITIES DECREASE FARTHER TO THE EAST GIVEN LESS INFLUENCE FROM
THE RIDGE AND MORE INTERMITTENT TROUGHING RESULTING IN NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST TIED TO
ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL RIDING AND ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA. TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADDITIONAL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA FAVORS ENHANCED ODDS FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED
ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL TOOLS.
ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TIED TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
FRONTAL ACTIVITY LEADS TO ELEVATED ODDS OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OFF THE WEST COAST. CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM TROUGHING RESULTS IN PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS ALASKA, WITH A TILT TOWARD ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE STATE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII
DURING WEEK 2, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980626 - 20140618 - 19940706 - 20160708 - 20200701
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980625 - 20160708 - 20140617 - 20200630 - 19980620
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 10 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 12 - 18 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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