928
FXUS01 KWBC 041958
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT SAT JUL 04 2026
VALID 00Z SUN JUL 05 2026 - 00Z TUE JUL 07 2026
...DANGEROUS HEAT PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
...COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A PROLONGED AND DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
WEATHER STORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES AND PEAK HEAT
INDICES OF 100-115 DEGREES. HOWEVER, THE MOST INTENSE HEAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD, BRINGING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WHILE
DANGEROUS OVERNIGHT WARMTH AND HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
IN ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES, THE FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BECOME A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION
TO THE WIND THREAT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF REPEATING
STORMS AND FLOODING AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FARTHER WEST, THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
BY SUNDAY, THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
POSSIBLE.
ACROSS THE WEST, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY.
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