908
FXUS01 KWBC 050854
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
453 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2026
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 05 2026 - 12Z TUE JUL 07 2026
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THE
SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON MONDAY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE, AND LANDSLIDES ON ROADS. HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED TO A MARGINAL RISK OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AS WELL.
MEANWHILE, A SECOND FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE GREAT BASIN BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND PARTS OF WASHINGTON
STATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, NORTHERN PLAINS, NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND PARTS OF WASHINGTON STATE ON MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE, AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE
EVENING ON SUNDAY, AND TO A GREATER EXTENT ON MONDAY. DIURNAL
HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST AND INTO FLORIDA.
ZIEGENFELDER
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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