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FXUS06 KWBC 051902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN JULY 05 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 15 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND ARE CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
MODEL STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL
BLEND INDICATES A RIDGE WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING
SEA EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO MAINLAND ALASKA, THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND ALONG
THE WEST COAST. A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS), WHILE
A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MODEL FORECASTS.
PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS ALL
OF THE CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) ACROSS WYOMING.
INCREASED TROUGHING DECREASES THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA FAVOR HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AS DEPICTED IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES IN THE VICINITY.
THE TREND TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
FAVORS INCREASING ODDS OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENHANCED ONSHORE
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGHING TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE MORE VARIABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL ACTIVITY FAVORING
WEAKLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FAVOR
SLIGHTLY INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 13 - 19 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE MEAN
PATTERN FAVORS WEAK TROUGHING AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE BERING SEA, MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHILE A RIDGE AND
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. A RIDGE AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE STILL FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A TROUGH AND WEAK BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
CONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE, HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH PROBABILITIES ABOVE
70 PERCENT CENTERED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING.
PROBABILITIES DECREASE FARTHER TO THE EAST GIVEN LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE
AND MORE INTERMITTENT TROUGHING, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST TIED TO ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL RIDING
AND ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. TROUGHING INITIALLY
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADDITIONAL TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA
FAVORS ENHANCED ODDS FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
MOST MODEL TOOLS.
ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES, THE OHIO VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND THE SURRENDERING REGIONS TIED
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS. FRONTAL ACTIVITY LEADS TO ELEVATED ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OFF THE WEST COAST.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW IS ENHANCED INTO THE
REGION. CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM TROUGHING RESULTS IN PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS ALASKA, WITH A TILT TOWARD ENHANCED ODDS OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII DURING WEEK 2, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140618 - 19980626 - 19940706 - 20080719 - 20160708
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980625 - 20140618 - 20160708 - 19940706 - 20200701
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 15 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 13 - 19 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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