144
FXUS02 KWBC 052000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VALID 12Z WED JUL 08 2026 - 12Z SUN JUL 12 2026
...MAJOR HEATWAVE FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THIS WEEK AND BEYOND...
..PATTERN OVERVIEW
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST, BUT ESPECIALLY
BUILD THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S.. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAJOR HEATWAVE INITIALLY
OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND INCREASINGLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT
BASIN TO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THIS WEEK. TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER ON/INTO THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER
WILL PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH A FOCUSED RISK FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND
RUNOFF FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WHERE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK MARGINAL AND SLIGHT
RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ACTIVITY FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT DOWN
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S.
LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND UNDER AN AMPLFYING UPPER TROUGH POSITION.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE SEEMS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LARGER SCALE
FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEK. FAVOR A BLEND TO MITIGATE SMALLER SCALE
VARIANCES AS CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL PREDICTABILITY WITH MORE
FOCUS ON THE MODELS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING FOCUS TO THE
ENSMEBLE MEANS AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS ALSO ACTS TO MAINTAIN GOOD WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BENEATH A GROWING UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN U.S.. THIS HEAT WAVE WILL
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-115 ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH. TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED HOT/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, IN PARTICULAR, WHERE THERE'S A GROWING CONCERN FOR
EXTREME HEAT RISK BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. NO OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM HOT TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT
ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS HEALTH
SYSTEMS, INDUSTRIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE.
SURFACE WAVES AND ATTENDANT FRONTS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
(>90TH PERCENTILE) AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT COULD COMBINE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING, BUT WEAK SHEARING WILL
LIKELY MITIGATE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANHILE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY START TO INCREASE OVER AT LEAST
ARIZONA LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND AS THE UPPER HIGH LIFTS FARTHER
NORTH INTO COLORADO. THIS MAY LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION FOR
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE/RIDGE WEAKNESS.
KEBEDE/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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