033
FXUS02 KWBC 052013
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VALID 12Z WED JUL 08 2026 - 12Z SUN JUL 12 2026
...MAJOR HEATWAVE FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THIS WEEK AND BEYOND...
..PATTERN OVERVIEW
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ALSO BUILD
ROBUSTLY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S.. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAJOR HEATWAVE
INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND INCREASINGLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN TO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THIS WEEK AND BEYOND.
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER
ON/INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. TROUGHING ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST, WITH A FOCUSED
RISK FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND RUNOFF ISSUES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHERE WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM TRANSLATION AND ENHANCED RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND BROADLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
EAST-CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND UNDER AN
AMPLFYING UPPER TROUGH POSITION DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE SEEMS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LARGER SCALE
FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEK. FAVOR A BLEND TO MITIGATE SMALLER SCALE
VARIANCES AS CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL PREDICTABILITY WITH MORE
FOCUS ON THE MODELS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING FOCUS TO THE
ENSMEBLE MEANS AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS ALSO ACTS TO MAINTAIN GOOD WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BENEATH A GROWING UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN U.S.. THIS HEAT WAVE WILL
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-115 ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH. TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED HOT/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, IN PARTICULAR, WHERE THERE'S A GROWING CONCERN FOR
EXTREME HEAT RISK BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. NO OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM HOT TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT
ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS HEALTH
SYSTEMS, INDUSTRIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE.
SURFACE WAVES AND ATTENDANT FRONTS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
(>90TH PERCENTILE) AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT COULD COMBINE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING. RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT IN MASS MAINLY INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANHILE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY START TO INCREASE OVER AT LEAST
ARIZONA LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND AS THE UPPER HIGH LIFTS FARTHER
NORTH INTO UTAH/COLORADO. RIDGE AMPLIFICATION MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME
DOWNSTREAM STRONG CONVECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS GIVEN
SUMMERTIME AIRMASS AND GROWING UPPER DIFFLUENCE/WEAKNESSES.
KEBEDE/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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