200
FXUS02 KWBC 061927
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
VALID 12Z THU JUL 09 2026 - 12Z MON JUL 13 2026
...MAJOR HEATWAVE FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THIS WEEK AND BEYOND...
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE SEEMS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY ON THE
MID-LARGER SCALE FLOW PATTERN THAT PORTENDS ABOVE NORMAL HEAT
THREAT RELATED PREDICTABILITY. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS NUMEROUS AND
VARIED SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES, ESPECIALLY WITH IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCAL CONVECTIVE FOCUS AND TRANSLATION OVER TIME.
OVERALL, FAVOR A BROAD COMPOISTE BLEND OF MODELS, ENSEMBLE MEANS
AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE TO MITIGATE MANY OF THE SMALLER
SCALE VARIANCES AS CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL PREDICTABILITY. THIS
OVERALL PLAN ALSO ACTS TO MAINTAIN GOOD WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S./FLORIDA
AND ALSO BUILD ROBUSTLY THIS PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S.. THIS WILL
INCLUDE ANONAMLOUS CLOSED HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. LATER PERIOD. THESE WILL SUPPORT A MAJOR HEATWAVE INITIALLY
OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND INCREASINGLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT
BASIN TO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THIS WEEK AND BEYOND. NO OVERNIGHT
RELIEF FROM HOT TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INFRASTRUCTURE.
MEANWHILE, TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES WILL PROPAGATE DOWN FROM THE U.S.
NORTHERN TIER ON/INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. UPPER
TROUGHING/WEAKNESSES WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE MID- ATLANTIC WHERE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. WAVY
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRANSLATION AND ENHANCED RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND SPREAD DOWN OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND THE SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK UNDER A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CARVED DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MAIN UPPER RIDGE/CLOSED HIGH.
MEANWHILE, THE GUIDANCE SIGNAL IS GROWING THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND RAINFALL IS SEASONALLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN AND INCREASE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MAIN UPPER RIDGE/HIGH BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S.. RIDGE AMPLIFICATION SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO SCATTERED
DOWNSTREAM STRONG SOUTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION GIVEN SUMMERTIME
AIRMASS AND GROWING UPPER DIFFLUENCE/TUCKED WEAKNESSES ALOFT.
KEBEDE/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page