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FXUS06 KWBC 061953
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JULY 06 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 12 - 16 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND ARE CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
MODEL STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL
BLEND INDICATES A RIDGE WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING
SEA EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO MAINLAND ALASKA, THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND ALONG
THE WEST COAST. A STRONG RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS),
WHILE A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MODEL FORECASTS.
PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS ALL
OF THE CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. INCREASED TROUGHING DECREASES THE ODDS
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE ENHANCED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA
FAVOR HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND FLORIDA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA FAVOR INCREASED
CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AS DEPICTED IN THE GEFS AND
ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES IN THE VICINITY.
THE TREND TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
FAVORS INCREASING ODDS OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGHING TILTS THE ODDS TO NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE MORE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL
ACTIVITY FAVORING WEAKLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TO THE SOUTHEAST, AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW IS ENHANCED INTO THESE REGIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FAVOR
SLIGHTLY INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 14 - 20 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE MEAN
PATTERN FAVORS WEAK TROUGHING AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHILE A RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE STILL FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS IN THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD. A TROUGH AND WEAK BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
HAWAII.
CONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE, HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH PROBABILITIES ABOVE
60 PERCENT CENTERED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PROBABILITIES DECREASE FARTHER TO THE EAST GIVEN LESS INFLUENCE FROM
THE RIDGE AND MORE INTERMITTENT TROUGHING, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST TIED TO ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL
RIDING AND ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. TROUGHING
INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADDITIONAL TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN ALASKA FAVORS ENHANCED ODDS FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL TOOLS.
ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE
SURRENDERING REGIONS TIED TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. FRONTAL ACTIVITY LEADS TO ELEVATED ODDS OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, DUE TO
ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW WITH A 500-HPA RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM TROUGHING RESULTS IN PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING ACROSS ALASKA, WITH A TILT TOWARD ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII DURING WEEK 2, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140618 - 19980626 - 20080719 - 20180713 - 20160708
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980626 - 20140618 - 20160708 - 19980621 - 20180714
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 12 - 16 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 14 - 20 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N A
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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