750
FXUS02 KWBC 070635
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 10 2026 - 12Z TUE JUL 14 2026
...MAJOR HEATWAVES IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND...
..OVERVIEW
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEK,
GENERATING MAJOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS. MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK CONTINUES FOR THE
SOUTHEAST BENEATH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A
RETROGRADING RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS THE CONUS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THE
DETERMINISTIC EURO AND UKMET DEVIATE FROM CONSENSUS ON SMALL SCALE
DETAILS REGARDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK. A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND CONSISTING OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND AI GUIDANCE WAS
USED IN THE BLEND THROUGH DAY 4. ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE GRADUALLY
INCREASED IN THE BLEND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WARM/MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND, WHERE MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE,
RIDGING IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL MAJOR TO ISOLATED
EXTREME HEAT RISK LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 105-115 COULD HARM THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING
OR HYDRATION. A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD BRING
SOME RELIEF TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND EAST COAST
WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS THIS WEEKEND.
SOME STORMS IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY
GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A PATTERN SHIFT FEATURING A CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AND WEAK EAST
PACIFIC TROUGHING MAY GENERATE MONSOONAL STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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