787
FXUS01 KWBC 070810
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
409 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2026
VALID 12Z TUE JUL 07 2026 - 12Z THU JUL 09 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND UPPER
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...
...DANGEROUS HEAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DESPITE A
SHRINKING EASTERN U.S. HEAT FOOTPRINT WHILE HEAT BUILDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST...
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE
AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WHILE HEAT GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IN THE SOUTHWEST, TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CLIMB,
WITH EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES REMAINING IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND ROUGHLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL BUBBLE
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SAG SOUTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE. IN
ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
/TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SECOND FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, THEN WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, WILL BE
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE, AND LANDSLIDES ON ROADS.
FURTHERMORE, AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE, AND LANDSLIDES ON ROADS.
ALSO ON WEDNESDAY, A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
ELSEWHERE, AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST, THE GREAT
BASIN, AND THE ROCKIES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, DIURNAL HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST AND INTO FLORIDA ON TUESDAY
AND TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE ON WEDNESDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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