205
FXUS02 KWBC 071858
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 10 2026 - 12Z TUE JUL 14 2026
...MAJOR HEATWAVES IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
..OVERVIEW
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS WEEK, GENERATING MAJOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH- CENTRAL CONUS. MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK CONTINUES
FOR THE SOUTHEAST BENEATH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A
RETROGRADING RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE
SCALE/SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPENCIES WITH TROUGHING
OFF THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE NORTHEAST, BUT A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS RELATIVELY WELL. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WEAK ENERGY OVER THE TOP OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AS WELL, BUT
THESE DETAILS MAY TAKE UNTIL THE SHORT RANGE TO RESOLVE. THE WPC
FORECAST WAS BASED ON A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THROUGH DAY 5,
INCREASING TO HALF ENSEMBLE MEANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
MAINTAINS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC SHIFT AS WELL.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WARM/MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHERE MAJOR TO
LOCALIZED EXTREME HEAT RISK WILL BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE, RIDGING
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO PROMOTE MAJOR TO ISOLATED EXTREME HEAT
RISK LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
105-115. A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH HAZARDOUS HEAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD.
A SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST, SOUTH, AND
EAST COAST WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS THIS
WEEKEND. SOME STORMS IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MAY GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A PATTERN SHIFT FEATURING A CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AND WEAK EAST
PACIFIC TROUGHING MAY GENERATE MONSOONAL STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING A THREAT, PARTICULARLY FOR MORE SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS. THE DAY 5/SATURDAY ERO HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS
THIS AREA.
SANTORELLI/KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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