336
FXUS06 KWBC 071910
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JULY 07 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 13 - 17 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A STRONG ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTEND FROM THIS RIDGE TO COVER
MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). WEAK TROUGHS ARE FORECAST ON
EITHER SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, OVER THE NORTHEAST, AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST, RESPECTIVELY. CYCLONIC FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED
OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND. NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, DUE TO
EXPANSIVE RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, DUE TO A PREDICTED
TROUGH. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, DUE TO PREDICTED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA, DUE TO
PREDICTED ANOMALOUS TROUGHING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
HAWAII, DUE LARGELY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN
THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION AND
ORIENTATION FOR ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS SUCH, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST,
CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM PREDICTED ANOMALOUS RIDGES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, A MODEST TILT
TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA,
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO ITS NORTH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 55% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 15 - 21 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, EXPANSIVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY OR MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF WEEK-2 BEFORE RETREATING TO THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS LATE. THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR AN ENHANCED MONSOON THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WITH THE
TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. WEAK TROUGHING IS ALSO
FAVORED TO PERSIST DURING THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF WEEK-2 JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PERSISTENT TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA. NEAR TO MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DUE
TO A CONTINUATION OF EXPANSIVE RIDGING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHERE
ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE MOST PERSISTENT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
(GENERALLY 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, DUE TO POTENTIAL INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED
CYCLONIC FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, DUE LARGELY
TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING WEEK-2,
LEADING TO INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, GULF COAST, SOUTHEAST, AND MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM ANOMALOUS RIDGES OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC, RESPECTIVELY. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, CLOSE TO THE
PREDICTED RIDGE AXIS. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR NEW ENGLAND, NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH
AXIS. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN AXIS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MODESTLY FAVORED FOR
COASTAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA,
CONSISTENT WITH NATURAL ANALOGS AND TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE PREDICTED MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA, DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING. A TILT TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 55% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS, OFFSET BY
DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATTERN
DE-AMPLICATION LATE.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140619 - 20080719 - 20180713 - 19980626 - 20050715
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980626 - 20140618 - 20160708 - 20180714 - 20080720
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 13 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE B A
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 15 - 21 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE B A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page