444
FXUS02 KWBC 080536
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
136 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JUL 11 2026 - 12Z WED JUL 15 2026
...MAJOR HEATWAVES IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND...
..OVERVIEW
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS WEEK, GENERATING MAJOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. MAJOR TO
EXTREME HEAT RISK CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST BENEATH AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A RETROGRADING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A FAIRLY SIMPLE RIDGE-TROUGH
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. SOME
SMALL SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE EXPANDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
U.S.. BEYOND THAT, NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
GUIDANCE. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONSISTING OF AVAILABLE
DETERMINISTIC AND AI GUIDANCE WERE USED ON DAYS 3 AND 4. THIS WAS
FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY INCREASING ENSEMBLE MEANS ON DAYS 5-7.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WARM/MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHERE MAJOR
TO LOCALIZED EXTREME HEAT RISK WILL BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE,
RIDGING IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE MAJOR TO ISOLATED EXTREME
HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-115. A
DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF TO
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH HAZARDOUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD.
A SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST, TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. SOME STORMS MAY GENERATE
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING.
A PATTERN SHIFT FEATURING A CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AND WEAK EAST
PACIFIC TROUGHING MAY GENERATE MONSOONAL STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK AND GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING A THREAT, PARTICULARLY
FOR MORE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page