637
FXUS06 KWBC 081901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 08 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 14 - 18 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A STRONG ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTEND FROM THIS RIDGE TO COVER
MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). WEAK TROUGHS ARE FORECAST ON
EITHER SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, OVER THE NORTHEAST, AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST, RESPECTIVELY. CYCLONIC FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHS PREDICTED
NEAR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND, RESPECTIVELY. NEAR TO
MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, DUE TO
EXPANSIVE RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE ROCKIES, NEAR THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES, DUE TO A PREDICTED TROUGH. CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REDUCED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, DUE TO PREDICTED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY KEEP
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
ALASKA, DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUS TROUGHING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, DUE LARGELY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION AND
ORIENTATION FOR ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS SUCH, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM PREDICTED ANOMALOUS RIDGES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, A MODEST TILT
TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA,
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO ITS NORTH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, AND THE GREAT LAKES, ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. A TILT TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 55% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 16 - 22 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, EXPANSIVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OR GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
WEEK-2 BEFORE RETREATING TO THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS LATE. THE CENTER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
AN ENHANCED MONSOON THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WITH THE TROUGH
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. WEAK TROUGHING IS ALSO FAVORED TO
PERSIST DURING THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. PERSISTENT
TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. NEAR TO MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DUE
TO A CONTINUATION OF EXPANSIVE RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 70
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
WHERE ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE MOST PERSISTENT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
(GENERALLY UNDER A 40 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, DUE TO POTENTIAL INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA,
UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
HAWAII, DUE LARGELY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING WEEK-2,
LEADING TO INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, GULF COAST, SOUTHEAST, AND MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM ANOMALOUS RIDGES
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC, RESPECTIVELY. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS EASTWARD TO
GREAT LAKES, NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA,
DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF,
CANADIAN, AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 55% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS, OFFSET BY
DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATTERN
DE-AMPLICATION LATE.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20180713 - 20050715 - 20140619 - 19980626 - 20080719
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140618 - 19980625 - 20180714 - 20160708 - 20080720
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 14 - 18 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE B A
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 16 - 22 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N B
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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