848
FXUS02 KWBC 081932
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JUL 11 2026 - 12Z WED JUL 15 2026
...MAJOR HEATWAVES IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
..OVERVIEW
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MAJOR TO
EXTREME HEAT RISK CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE WANING AS A
COLD FRONT BRINGS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S., MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ITS DEPICTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. THE PATTERN FEATURES AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG, BROAD,
AND EXPANSIVE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN TO THE CENTRAL U.S., FLANKING
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS, AND SHORTWAVES RIDING
OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF, CMC, AND EC-AIFS. OVERALL, THE WPC FORECAST UTILIZED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR DAY 3 BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY
EC, CMC, AND EC-AIFS FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. FOR DAYS 6 AND 7, 30 TO
40% OF THE BLEND WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE EPS, OFFERING STABILITY,
MAINTAINING CONTINUITY, AND MITIGATING SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM
THE WESTERN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE DAYS OF WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO
LOCALIZED EXTREME HEAT RISK WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR A DANGEROUS HEAT
WAVE ACROSS THE REGION. ELSEWHERE, RIDGING IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO FOSTER MAJOR TO ISOLATED EXTREME HEAT RISK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-115 DEGREES. A DEEPENING
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH HAZARDOUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST, TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. SOME STORMS MAY GENERATE
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL DRAW MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT BASIN LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
MILLER/KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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