176
FXUS02 KWBC 090653
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 12 2026 - 12Z THU JUL 16 2026
...MAJOR HEATWAVE IMPACTS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...
..OVERVIEW
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST, GENERATING
SCATTERED STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MID-LEVEL VORTICES PROPAGATING NORTH OUT OF MEXICO WILL
CARRY WAVES OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR
CORNERS NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY SIMPLE SUMMER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. THERE'S
MINIMAL DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONSISTING OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND AI GUIDANCE WAS USED
THROUGH DAY 4 BEFORE GRADUALLY INCORPORATING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
STARTING ON DAY 5.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
AN EXPANDING AND DEEPENING CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL GENERATE
DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAILY MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
NIGHT TIME LOWS STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW 70 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-110 DEGREES WILL BE EXACERBATED BY THE
LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF, WHICH COMBINED TOGETHER SUPPORT MAJOR HEAT
RISK FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
A SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT OVER THE GULF COAST AND ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND.
SOME STORMS MAY GENERATE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA PENINSULA HEADING INTO THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND RENEW HEAT RISK CONCERNS FOR THE
REGION.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL DRAW MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT BASIN LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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