748
FXUS01 KWBC 111825
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VALID 00Z SUN JUL 12 2026 - 00Z TUE JUL 14 2026
...REPEATED THREATS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE
EAST-CENTRAL U.S INTO THE WEEKEND...
...DANGEROUS HEAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE HEAT LINGERS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AN ANOMALOUS PLUME OF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, PEAKING IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, WHERE WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOGETHER WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
BY SUNDAY, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN GEORGIA ON SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODING CHANCES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST. COMBINING WITH THE SEVERE STORM THREATS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO LOCALLY OVER 110 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON,
WHERE NUMEROUS HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. SOME RELIEF IN THE
FORM OF CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL DECREASE THE HAZARDOUS HEAT ON SUNDAY
OVER THE CAROLINAS BUT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
OVER FLORIDA.
FARTHER WEST, FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS AND POTENTIAL FOR DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORDS BOTH DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE THE HOTTER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH
THE GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM AVERAGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HERE WHERE FORECAST HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES (LOCALLY 110+
POSSIBLE) WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID-JULY. EVEN A FEW ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE
CHALLENGED ON SUNDAY (SUCH AS THE ALL-TIME HIGH OF 107 AT SALT
LAKE CITY, UT, AND 108 AT BILLINGS, MT). IF YOU WILL BE SITUATED
WITHIN ANY OF THESE AREAS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE EXTREME HEAT,
STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
IF POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BRING COOLER AIR EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO MONTANA LATER ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WHILE ANOMALOUS HEAT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST BEYOND MONDAY. MEANWHILE, SOME MONSOONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ASHERMAN/KONG
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