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FXUS06 KWBC 111906
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT JULY 11 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 17 - 21 2026
TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT A STRONG ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTEND FROM THIS
RIDGE TO COVER MOST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED
STATES (CONUS). THE MAGNITUDE OF THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS GRADUALLY
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. TRANSIENT RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN. AS A RESULT, A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER
THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH
FORECAST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE, CORRESPONDING TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE WESTERN
MAINLAND. NEAR TO MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, DUE TO
EXPANSIVE RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AND
GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. YESTERDAY'S OFFICIAL
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORED TWO DISTINCT MAXIMA IN ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILITIES,
ONE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
TODAY, THE TWO DISTINCT MAXIMA IN FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ARE CONNECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH A BROAD 50 PERCENT CHANCE AREA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA) ARE RELATED TO ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES DUE TO A
RETROGRADING TROUGH. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AS
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION MAY KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING. DUE TO THE EXPECTED LONG DURATION OF THIS TROUGH, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
(GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS HAWAII, DUE LARGELY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION AND
ORIENTATION FOR ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS SUCH, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST, ROCKIES, AND HIGH PLAINS,
WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR CALIFORNIA, NEVADA,
ARIZONA, UTAH, AND PARTS OF NEIGHBORING STATES, AND EXCEEDING 40 PERCENT NEAR
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS, RELATED TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. VERY MODEST TILTS TOWARD
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED OVER NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF WASHINGTON,
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AND FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION. FOR THIS LAST AREA, THE SLIGHTLY FAVORED
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPECTED WEAKENING ANOMALOUS
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. A
TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGHING OVER ALASKA, OFFSET BY INCONSISTENCIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
AND WITH THE POTENTIAL RETROGRESSION OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 19 - 25 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, ANOMALOUS RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY, ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHT EASTWARD MOTION.
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR AN ENHANCED MONSOON, WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, WITH THE TROUGH RETROGRADING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. PERSISTENT TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA WELL INTO WEEK-2. NEAR TO MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS DUE TO A
CONTINUATION OF ANOMALOUS RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, IN LARGE PART
DUE TO VERY WARM SSTS. ODDS EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE GULF COAST REGION
AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST, AND OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER (<40 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND NEARBY SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, DUE TO POTENTIAL INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, AS A TROUGH RETROGRADES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND WEAKENS TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
MOST OF ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, DUE LARGELY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2, LEADING TO INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, RELATED TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
AREAS OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED OVER THE VICINITY OF EASTERN
TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA, AND SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. FOR THE FORMER AREA, THE RELATIVE DRYNESS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHILE FOR THE LATTER AREA, THE
SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS COINCIDENT WITH A WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. UNCALIBRATED PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE FROM THE ECENS AND CMCE
FAVOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR THE BREAK IN THE TWO AREAS OF FAVORED BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING. A TILT TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 55% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY THE POTENTIAL FOR PATTERN DE-AMPLICATION
AND THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160709 - 20220711 - 20210722 - 20220716 - 19980625
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20220713 - 20160708 - 19980626 - 20200724 - 20050716
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 17 - 21 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 19 - 25 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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