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FXUS06 KWBC 121902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN JULY 12 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 18 - 22 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND ARE CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
MODEL STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL
BLEND INDICATES A STRONG ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS GRADUALLY FORECAST TO DIMINISH
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. CYCLONIC FLOW AND
BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA. NEAR- TO MODESTLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, DUE TO
EXPANSIVE RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, WHICH ARE RELATED TO ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN
THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES DUE TO A RETROGRADING TROUGH. NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AS CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION MAY
KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST
OF ALASKA, DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUS TROUGHING. DUE TO THE EXPECTED LONG
DURATION OF THIS TROUGH, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE)
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, DUE
LARGELY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION AND
ORIENTATION FOR ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS SUCH, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST, ROCKIES, AND HIGH PLAINS,
WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, ARIZONA,
UTAH, AND PARTS OF NEIGHBORING STATES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, RELATED TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. VERY MODEST
TILTS TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA, SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AUTOBLEND AND ERF CONSOLIDATION
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF
ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL OUTPUT
FROM THE ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 20 - 26 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
REDUCTION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, ANOMALOUS
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY.
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR AN ENHANCED MONSOON, WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, WITH THE TROUGH RETROGRADING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. PERSISTENT TROUGHING WITH WEAK 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA
WELL INTO WEEK-2. NEAR TO MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS DUE TO A
CONTINUATION OF ANOMALOUS RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, IN LARGE PART
DUE TO VERY WARM SSTS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AS A TROUGH RETROGRADES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND
WEAKENS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, DUE LARGELY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL
SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2, LEADING TO INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST. ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS,
RELATED TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ENHANCED SOUTHERLY SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW.
AREAS OF NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS,
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE, SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL
AUTOBLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM
THE ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY THE POTENTIAL FOR PATTERN DE-AMPLICATION
AND THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20210721 - 20160709 - 20110724 - 20220716 - 20240726
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160708 - 20220714 - 20210721 - 20220709 - 19980710
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 18 - 22 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 20 - 26 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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