980
FXUS01 KWBC 152013
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
VALID 00Z THU JUL 16 2026 - 00Z SAT JUL 18 2026
...ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY...
...ANOMALOUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WHILE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC...
...MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WESTERN U.S...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF MONTANA THURSDAY AS WELL
AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
PROLONGED HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITH DAILY MAXIMUMS HOLDING STEADY IN THE 90S TO LOWER
100S FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME COOLER, DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE U.S.- CANADIAN BORDER AS
A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A DEEPENING CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE 80S THERE. MEANWHILE,
THE HEAT AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AT THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS HEAT
ADVISORIES AND SOME EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR MUCH OF
THE GREAT LAKES, PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. IF YOU WILL BE SITUATED WITHIN ANY OF THESE AREAS
FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE EXTREME HEAT, STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS, AND LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IF POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MONTANA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE END. COOLER
AIR WILL PENETRATE DEEPER INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A SECOND COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION, SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND PRIOR
TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT.
AS THE ANOMALOUS UPPER HIGH SPRAWLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATS A
SLOW-MOVING WEATHER REGIME HAS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
STATES. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO STRETCHED FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL VORTICES WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE SOUTHERN STATES. NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT, A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MUTUALLY AMPLIFY THE SMALLER SCALE UPPER-LEVEL
VORTICES TO FURTHER ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THIS REGION UNDER THIS
SLOW-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN. THE LATEST RAINFALL FORECAST CALLS
FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6-8" WITH LOCALLY 10+ INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AS SOILS IN THE AREA BECOME INCREASINGLY
INUNDATED.
THERE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT, WHICH WILL BE LIFTING FARTHER
NORTH INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS LATER ON THURSDAY.
A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
KONG/CAMPBELL/ASHERMAN/OTTO
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