870
FXUS06 KWBC 161902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JULY 16 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 22 - 26 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND ARE CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
MODEL STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL
BLEND INDICATES A STRONG ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) EXTENDING
NORTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS GRADUALLY FORECAST TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
NEAR TO MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, DUE TO EXPANSIVE RIDGING AND ENHANCED SOUTHERLY SURFACE
MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
CONUS, AND GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHICH ARE RELATED TO ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO A
RETROGRADING TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING. DUE TO THE EXPECTED LONG DURATION OF THIS TROUGH, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
(GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, DUE LARGELY TO OBSERVED ABOVE
NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION AND
ORIENTATION FOR ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS SUCH, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR WEST, ROCKIES, AND HIGH
PLAINS, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE ROCKIES. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, RELATED TO A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ENHANCED SOUTHERLY SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
AMERICA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SUPPORTED
BY BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AUTOBLEND AND ERFCONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA,
ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM
THE ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 24 - 30 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
REDUCTION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, ANOMALOUS
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY.
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR AN ENHANCED MONSOON, WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, WITH THE TROUGH RETROGRADING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. A TROUGH IS PREDICTED ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA. NEAR TO MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CONUS DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AS A TROUGH
RETROGRADES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND WEAKENS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED IN ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED
CYCLONIC FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, DUE LARGELY
TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2, LEADING TO INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED ODDS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN QUARTER
OF THE CONUS, RELATED TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ENHANCED SOUTHERLY SURFACE
MOISTURE FLOW. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS, SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AUTOBLEND AND ERF CONSOLIDATION
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, DUE TO
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED
FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY THE POTENTIAL FOR PATTERN DE-AMPLICATION
AND THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20180709 - 20220718 - 20210706 - 19910715 - 20210721
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20180709 - 20220717 - 20110721 - 20220707 - 20210720
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 22 - 26 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN B A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 24 - 30 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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