414
FXUS01 KWBC 191848
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VALID 00Z MON JUL 20 2026 - 00Z WED JUL 22 2026
...HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE TO AFFECT THE
GREAT LAKES AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...A STRONG SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SUPPORT ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...HAZARDOUS HEAT BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...NEWLY FORMED T.D. TWO TO BRING HEAVY RAIN THREATS TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST...
...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
THERE IS NO LET UP IN AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DOWNWIND OF THE ONGOING CANADIAN WILDFIRES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF ONTARIO. THE LATEST SMOKE MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATIONS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF SMOKE MOVING SOUTH ON TUESDAY
ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST.
AIR QUALITY ALERTS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-WEST, WITH THIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AIR QUALITY ISSUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DUE TO
WILDFIRES ACROSS THIS AREA. AIR QUALITY ALERTS ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN OREGON INTO NORTHERN IDAHO.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT, INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE
STORMS PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WHILE COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD
FRONT, BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS, SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LARGE REGION OF MAJOR HEAT RISKS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES STRETCH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
NEWLY FORMED T.D. TWO OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE LATEST
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW MOVEMENT OF T.D.
TWO TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, THE OUTER RAINFALL
BANDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREATS
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST FL, WESTWARD ALONG
THE FL PANHANDLE, FAR SOUTHERN AL, FAR SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHERN
LA. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL AND UPDATED
INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.
AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ON THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL PRECIP PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS,
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, LARGE PORTIONS OF ARIZONA INTO UTAH, NEVADA
AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO.
ORAVEC
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