543
FXUS02 KWBC 200840
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
440 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
VALID 12Z THU JUL 23 2026 - 12Z MON JUL 27 2026
... HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOCUS FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FOR
CENTRAL TO WESTERN GULF COAST AREAS WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM "TWO"...
...HAZARDOUS HEAT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEK TO SHIFT
TO THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S. INTO NEXT WEEK AS ONGOING MONSOONAL RAINS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES TEND TO EASE...
..OVERVIEW
HOT AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
THIS WEEK OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF "TWO". MEANWHILE, NORTHERN TIER
SHORTWAVES WORKING INTO AN UPPER TROUGH POSIITON OVER THE EAST AND
MODERATING SURFACE FRONTS WILL BRING ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
LATER THIS WEEK DOWN OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH A SLOW MOVING
AND MOISTURE POOLING FRONT. ACTIVITY TO WORK WESTWARD OVER THE
GULF COAST AND INTO TEXAS WILL BE FUELED BY TROPICAL SYSTEM "TWO"
DEVELOPEMT, TRACK AND DEEP MOISTURE. ELSEWHERE, AMPLE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NOW STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WILL FUEL ENHANCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAT AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS AND TO THE SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES.
MONSOONAL FLOW MAY EASE LATER IN THIS PERIOD WITH THIS TRANSITION.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE OVERALL MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION, BUT UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL EVIDENT WITH IMPORTANT
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS INCLUDING LOCAL CONVECTION FOCUS AND THE
HANDLING AND ASSOCIATED QPF FOCUS AND AMOUNTS RELATED WITH THE
ONGING DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF "TWO" THAT IS FORECAST BY THE NHC
TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON A WESTAWARD TRACK NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND INTO TEXAS AS CHAMPIONED BY SOME MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE. MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS FOCUS HEAVY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF, BUT WPC MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER MATCH THE NHC
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST TRENDS PROMPTED BRINGING HEAVIER
RAINFALL MORE INLAND INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
FLOW AROUND A MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW SIGNIFICANT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/ROCKIES THIS WEEK, BUT MAY EASE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL FUEL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. SENSITIVE PLACES SUCH AS BURN SCARS, STEEP TERRAIN, ETC.,
WOULD BE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS. MARGINAL
RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SPAN THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SMALL EMBEDDED SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE CONVECTION MAY FOCUS.
UPPER RIDGE/CLOSED HIGH INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
OFFERS MAJOR HEATRISKS THIS WEEK AS TEMPERATURES UPWARDS TO 5-10F
ABOVE ALREADY HOT AVERAGES COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. EXPECT
SPOTTY RECORD HIGHS AND MORE WIDESPREAD RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
LIMIT RELIEF. HEAT INDICES RISE RISE UPWARDS TO 105-110+F IN SOME
SPOTS, WITH FOCUS EXPANDING UP THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, HEAVY RAINS/CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO FOCUS DOWN INTO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST LATER WEEK GIVEN SUPPORT ALOFT AND
SLOWED FRONTAL PUSH. WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MARGINAL RISK THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ALSO HAVE EMBEDDED EASTERN CAROLINAS SLIGHT RISK AREAS.
MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH, TROPICAL DEPRESSION "TWO" IS FORECAST TO
REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TOWARDS TEXAS INTO LATER THIS WEEK. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL FUEL A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN/RUNOFF ISSUES. A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WITH EMBEDDED SLIGHT RISK AREAS ARE IN PLACE
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA/GULF COAST INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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