117
FXUS01 KWBC 201928
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
VALID 00Z TUE JUL 21 2026 - 00Z THU JUL 23 2026
...A STRONG SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SUPPORT ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING RISKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC...
..T.D. TWO TO BRING HEAVY RAIN THREATS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
...HAZARDOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST...
...CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE BRINGS AIR QUALITY CONCERNS OVER
NORTHERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE
MUCH OF CONUS, WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVEL
ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL AID
THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A FEW FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EJECTING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL SERVE AS A PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, DAMAGING
WINDS, ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL, FLASH FLOOD THREAT, AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG-INTENSE TORNADOES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO TUESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM DROPS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND INTERACT WITH WARM TROPICAL MOISTURE,
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE, POSING A RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS FORECASTED
TO MOVE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM. THIS WILL BRING STORM SURGE
ALONG THE SHORELINE, HEAVY PRECIPIATION/FLASH FLOODING RISK ALONG
THE ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, LOUISIANA AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTLINES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR
ADDITIONAL AND UPDATED INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.
OVER INTO THE SOUTHWEST, MONSOONAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLOW,
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BRING ANOMALOUS WARM TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD HEAT WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S INTO LOWER 100S, WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES
EXCEEDING 105-115 F IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. THIS HEAT STRESS HAS
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MAJOR, TO LOCALLY EXTREME, HEAT RISK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE ADDITION OF
LITTLE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY, AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 75-80
F, HEAT RELATED ILLNESS MAY BE OF CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
FURTHER NORTH, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST.
AS THE WILDFIRES PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CANADA, THE MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE POOR AIR QUALITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SMOKE
RETURNING SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. ADDITIONALLY, THE FIRES WILL BRING AIR QUALITY CONCERNS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHERE SEVERAL AIR
QUALITY ALERTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
OUDIT
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