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FXUS06 KWBC 221918
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 22 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 01, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS AGREE ON THE AVERAGE
LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS AND A SOMEWHAT STATIONARY
PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS PREDICT A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE
ARCTIC TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, WHICH DEAMPLIFY DURING THE PERIOD. A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER THE
WESTERN CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). THE ECENS PREDICTS THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY TO BE UP TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. THIS
CORRESPONDS TO VERY STRONG CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS IN THE LOCATION AND
MAGNITUDE OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA, HOWEVER, A
WARMING TREND IS FORECAST WITH PROBABILITIES REDUCED RELATIVE TO PRIOR
FORECASTS. WITH A BROAD RIDGE PREDICTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE CONUS OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 80 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF FORECASTS AND THE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
MEANWHILE, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND
ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE STATE.
DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, LEADING
TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION, CONSISTENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS AND THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE EAST COAST, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 05, 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, 0Z CANADIAN,
AND 0Z AND 6Z GEFS MODELS ALL PREDICT A SIMILAR MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, WHILE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEAMPLIFY
SOMEWHAT DURING THE PERIOD. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. A PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEAMPLIFY NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA. A BROAD RIDGE WITH
WEAKER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD PERSISTS
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS IN WEEK 2, THIS FEATURE HAS SHIFTED WEST
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PERSISTS
IN TODAY'S FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOW FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA WITH
POSITIVE 500HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MOST DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE NOW FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE DURING WEEK-2. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST LINES AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, UNDER A BROAD
RIDGE, WHILE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS, UNDER A WEAK TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII,
WITH POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE VICINITY.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND
ALASKA DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL REMAINS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND. WHILE NEAR NORMAL IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES
INTO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THIS AREA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND PLAINS INTO THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE MIDWEST,
BENEATH AND AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE CONUS, UNDER A PREDICTED WEAK TROUGH AND
CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST, OFFSET BY A
DEAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, AND INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240805 - 20100728 - 19980704 - 20120724 - 19980727
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20120724 - 20100728 - 20240804 - 19980703 - 20220707
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 01, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA A B OHIO B N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 05, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N B OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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