986
FXUS02 KWBC 231859
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 26 2026 - 12Z THU JUL 30 2026
...WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN U.S. HAZARDOUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS MONSOONAL RAINS FOCUS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...
..HEAVY CONVECTION/RAIN PATTERN FOCUS INTO THE EAST NEXT WEEK
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS DEPICT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION VERY WELL
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE EXPANDING RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL U.S.
INTO THE WEST, AS WELL AS MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
EAST WERE CAPTURED WELL BY THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE TIMING OF A SOUTHERN
CANADA/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE LATER NEXT WEEK, BUT THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS RESOLVE THAT REASONABLY WELL.
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONSISTING OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND
AI GUIDANCE WAS USED THROUGH DAY 6 FOLLOWED BY A MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEANS ON DAY 7.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE OFFERS MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK THREATS TO
SHIFT THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK FROM THE SOUTHWEST/INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. AND THE SOUTH. EXPECT SPOTTY RECORD HIGHS AND MORE
WIDESPREAD RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIMIT RELIEF FROM THE HEATWAVE.
SOME MODERATING FLOW WITHIN AND AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL OCCUR AS SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEEDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES/PLAINS THIS WEEK,
WITH THE NEXT INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM MEXICO POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SENSITIVE PLACES SUCH AS BURN SCARS, STEEP TERRAIN, SLOT CANYONS
ETC. WOULD BE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS.
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) MARGINAL RISKS AREAS ARE FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AMPLE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ENERGIES SET TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EAST WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED ENHANCED TO
HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ERO MARGINAL RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
KEBEDE/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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