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FXUS06 KWBC 231911
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JULY 23 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 02, 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A STRONG ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
BAFFIN BAY, CONSISTENT WITH THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO).
THIS ANOMALOUS HIGH LATITUDE FEATURE SUPPORTS ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. UPSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH, EXPANSIVE ANOMALOUS
RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS),
PEAKING IN INTENSITY BETWEEN JULY 30 AND AUGUST 1. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AS THIS TOUGH WEAKENS, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ACROSS MUCH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA FROM WEST TO EAST. GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN, NEAR THE PREDICTED
MEAN RIDGE AXIS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS, DUE TO PREDICTED TROUGHING. TELECONNECTIONS
FROM THE STRONG RIDGE OVER BAFFIN BAY LIMITS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RELATIVELY COOLER AIRMASS, LEADING TO A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GULF COAST REGIONS. NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED
RAPIDLY RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL SSTS TILT THE ODDS
TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. CONVERSELY,
ABOVE NORMAL SSTS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, CONSISTENT WITH AN ENHANCED
MONSOONAL SIGNAL. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN GULF
COAST, NEAR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A TILT
TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE PREDICTED ACROSS THE WEST. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. A TILT
TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND,
UNDER ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SOUTHEAST ALASKA ALSO TILTS WET,
AHEAD OF A WEAKENING TROUGH OFFSHORE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS HAWAII DUE TO POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, AS FAUSTO (OR ITS REMNANTS) ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, SO ENHANCED ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE KEPT MODEST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 06, 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS ENSEMBLE
SPREAD INCREASES. ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST WELL
INTO THE PERIOD ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA, INCLUDING ALASKA,
SUGGESTING A CONTINUATION OF A NEGATIVE AO. AFTER THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS, THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER. THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WOULD GENERALLY BE CONSISTENT WITH A NEGATIVE AO
SIGNATURE. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
PERIOD. BY THE START OF THE PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AS A TOUGH TO ITS SOUTH
WEAKENS. THESE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE
DURATION OF WEEK-2. NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ACROSS HAWAII.
ANOMALOUS RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
(GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHERE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST
PERSISTENT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SURROUNDING REGIONS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED AHEAD OF IT, ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS, AS THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH WEAKENS.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA DUE TO PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH COAST OF THE MAINLAND,
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHERE SSTS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW NORMAL.
CONVERSELY, SSTS SURROUNDING HAWAII ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL, SUPPORTING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND COASTAL
MID-ATLANTIC, AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS MORE LIKELY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS, ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SURROUNDING REGIONS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A TILT TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FRONTAL ACTIVITY. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
MODESTLY FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN GULF COAST, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FARTHER
TO THE NORTH, ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM
THE TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN, CONSISTENT WITH THE MEAN POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE
PREDICTED OVER THE WEST. THE ORIENTATION OF THIS PRECIPITATION SIGNATURE IS
SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIAL GULF SURGE, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FARTHER TO THE NORTH,
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS UNDER
ANOMALOUS RIDGING. MOST OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA ALSO TILTS DRY,
ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE ANOMALOUS HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE FORECAST
OVER THE BAFFIN BAY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AHEAD OF A WEAKENING TROUGH. CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240805 - 19980703 - 20100728 - 20120724 - 20210802
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240805 - 20120724 - 20100728 - 19980703 - 20210803
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 02, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA N B OHIO B N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 06, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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